In the lead-up to Hollywood’s most anticipated awards season, the quartet of guild ceremonies held in early March revealed the unpredictable nature of this year’s race. These events, spanning two weekends, set the stage for surprises that kept everyone guessing.

The most startling moment occurred on March 3 when the Producers Guild of America unexpectedly awarded Best Picture to “Moulin Rouge,” surpassing heavy favorites like “A Beautiful Mind,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,” “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone,” and “Shrek.” The audience’s initial reaction was one of disbelief, a collective “Did I hear that right?” followed by astonished exclamations. The director of “Moulin Rouge,” Baz Luhrmann, delivered a genuine and heartfelt thank-you speech that seemed to reflect his surprise and humility.

This victory was especially meaningful for Luhrmann, who had been overlooked for an Oscar nomination for Best Director, despite the film’s eight nominations. The PGA win prompted many analysts to reconsider their predictions for the Oscars, shifting the narrative of frontrunners and dark horses alike.

Other winners from this whirlwind included “Gosford Park,” “A Beautiful Mind,” and “Monster’s Ball,” each benefiting from the shakeup. Although “The Lord of the Rings” faced some dampening of its earlier momentum following its 13 Oscar nominations, its awards for supporting actor and continued Oscar prospects remained strong.

Meanwhile, films like “Black Hawk Down,” “Bridget Jones’s Diary,” “Ghost World,” “I Am Sam,” “In the Bedroom,” “Iris,” “The Royal Tenenbaums,” “Sexy Beast,” and “Training Day” maintained their Oscar viability, despite not winning at these guild shows.

The Writers Guild of America awards, held on March 2 at the Beverly Hilton, largely followed the pattern of the others. Akiva Goldsman took Adapted Screenplay for “A Beautiful Mind,” while Julian Fellowes claimed Original Screenplay for “Gosford Park.” Both wins were somewhat surprising, as each faced stiff competition from other notable contenders like “Ghost World,” “The Lord of the Rings,” “Monster’s Ball,” and “The Royal Tenenbaums.”

Distinct among these events was the informal nature of the WGA ceremony, which called for business attire rather than traditional black-tie. This relaxed atmosphere even led Harlan Ellison to wear a bathrobe and ascot while presenting an award.

The Producers Guild event that followed was more conventional, with host Bradley Whitford humorously referencing Russell Crowe’s recent acceptance speech controversy, joking about Crowe reading “Beowulf” aloud during his next appearance.

The Directors Guild of America’s ceremony on March 9, hosted by Carl Reiner, was noted for its humor. Director Ang Lee poked fun at the tense mood before the final award, claiming he’d speak as long as possible, citing his Taiwanese origins.

The second weekend’s results mirrored the first, with Ron Howard’s “A Beautiful Mind” taking DGA’s top honor. However, the biggest surprise came on March 10 when the Screen Actors Guild awarded its cast award to “Gosford Park,” rather than “A Beautiful Mind.” This upset further complicated the Oscar race, as “Gosford Park” joined “A Beautiful Mind,” “In the Bedroom,” “The Lord of the Rings,” and “Moulin Rouge” in the final lineup for Best Picture.

After a series of unpredictable wins, the race for Hollywood’s top award has become even more difficult to forecast, leaving industry insiders and fans alike pondering who will ultimately take home the Oscar.

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